The AL East: Best In Show

Wednesday, 17 March 2010 21:16

Baseball Preview Part 3 of 6

Written by: Rob Lazlo

Predicted Order of Finish:

New York Yankees

Boston Red Sox

Tampa Bay Rays

Baltimore Orioles

Toronto Blue Jays

NEW YORK YANKEES

SEASON OUTLOOK: Playoff and Division Favorite

On the surface, the Yankees, owners of arguably the best lineup in baseball (only the Phillies can argue), only got better in the offseason. Picking up Curtis Granderson from the Tigers would seem to be an embarrassment of riches. In reality, however, Granderson is not that much of an upgrade from departed Johnny Damon, if at all. Similarly, calling upon Brett Gardner to be a full time starter with the departure of Melky Cabrera is an experiment with an uncertain outcome, and replacing reliable DH Hideki Matsui with Nick Johnson is definitely a drop off. That might be trouble for some teams, but not for the Yankees. The team of A-Rod, Teixeira, Jeter and Cano will continue to terrorize opposing pitchers and remains one of the best 1-9 lineups ever assembled. It is the main reason the Yankees have to be considered the favorite to repeat in the AL East and to return to the World Series.

Derek Jeter

The flip side of the coin is that the Yankees pitching, while good, is not nearly the work of art their lineup is. CC Sabathia at the top of the rotation is an Ace with a capital A, but A.J. Burnett is just an average #2 and newly acquired Javier Vazquez might well unseat Burnett as the #2 by season’s end. In the bullpen, the ageless Mariano Rivera has yet to look mortal, although you have to figure that sooner or later a 40 year old closer might stop being a good thing. Until then, the Yankees have more than enough pitching to complement their killer offense.

This is what hitters see in their sleep after

facing Yankees closer Mariano Rivera

Hit the jump to see the rest of the preview on teams of the AL East...

BOSTON RED SOX

SEASON OUTLOOK: Playoff Shoo-In

It seems clear from the moves the Red Sox made that they spent the offseason thinking about just one thing, the New York Yankees. It seems equally that they’ve concluded that trying to match the Yankees firepower offensively wasn’t going to work. For that reason, the Red Sox continue to boast a lineup that, while it will be productive, continues to lack the super fire-power it once had when Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz were two of baseball’s most feared hitters. Ortiz is still there, but his days are surely numbered, as are the number of productive at-bats he may have left. Part of the problem, Boston hopes, is solved by last season’s acquisition of Victor Martinez, but Martinez has never been a guy who will flirt with 40 homeruns, and that’s what’s missing for the Sox right now. A midseason trade to acquire Padres 1B Adrian Gonzalez would certainly solve that problem, but it hasn’t happened yet. In the meantime, the Sox will be lead by Martinez, 2B Dustin Pedroia, 1B Kevin Youkilis and leadoff hitter Jacoby Ellsbury. There’s plenty of hits and runs in that mix, but unless the Sox can acquire Gonzalez, they can’t match the Yankees in long-ball fireworks.

David Ortiz

Of course, the Red Sox plan does not appear to be to try. Instead, it looks like they’ve concluded that the Yankees lineup, as great as it is, is quite mortal when faced with great pitching and that is what defines this year’s Red Sox. Their staff, both starters and bullpen, is far and away the deepest in baseball. Jon Lester and John Burkett would be at the top of almost any rotation, free agent acquisition John Lackey is coming off a playoff performance where he was the Angels’ best pitcher against (you guessed it) the Yankees and if Daisuke Matsuzaka can regain even half the form he showed in ‘07 and ‘08, the Red Sox will be throwing a good starter at every team they face, every game. The bullpen is anchored by closer Jonathan Papelbon and perhaps the game’s best set up man, Hideki Okajima. With that kind of talent, the Sox probably figure they can wait until July to acquire Adrian Gonzalez since they only really need him for their much anticipated ALCS showdown with New York.

Hideki Okajima

TAMPA BAY RAYS

SEASON OUTLOOK: Playoff Dark Horse

You have to feel bad for the Rays. They can’t draw flies in Tampa, having finished last in the American League in attendance for seven straight seasons before a miraculous winning season and World Series appearance bumped them all the way up to third last in 2008. Let’s face it: Florida, as a whole, has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that it neither wants nor deserves major league baseball teams to be located there. The Rays play in dumpy Tropicana Field and rumors have swirled for several years that a new ballpark is in the works. Of course, you can’t play in a new ballpark that is “in the works;“ it has to be built. And the icing on the Rays’ cake is that they play in a division with two of the strongest teams in baseball, making any chance of a playoff run extremely narrow. Despite all the bad news, the Rays lineup is loaded with talented players: 3B Evan Longoria is one of the best young infielders in baseball; 1B Carlos Pena is a bona fide slugger; and OF Carl Crawford is a tough out with great speed. If CF BJ Upton can ever live up to his Willie Mays like potential, the Rays could really make some noise in the East.

Tropicana Field

The Rays pitching can’t match their hitting, although with starters like Matt Garza and James Shields, they are clearly not without talent and potential. The Rays have little margin for error, however, and none of their young starters has necessarily taken that next step to be a rotation stopper. One area of improvement should be the bullpen, where Atlanta closer Rafael Soriano (102 Ks in 75 IP) takes over for J.P Howell (8 blown saves), who moves into a more comfortable set up role. The Rays will have their moments in 2010, but realistically, they’ll need the Yankees or Red Sox to stumble to inject themselves into the playoff race.

J.P. Howell

BALTIMORE ORIOLES

SEASON OUTLOOK: Slowly Climbing

The Orioles are finally showing signs that they’re headed in the right direction. C Matt Wieters has been a preseason fantasy darling and Baltimore is expecting big things from him. The lineup has plenty of young talent top to bottom: leadoff hitter Brian Roberts is a multi-tool threat with surprising power and the young outfield of Nick Markakis, Adam Jones and Nolan Reimold are all high-potential players with bright futures. Still, the Orioles lack a big bopper in their lineup (free agent acquisition 1B Garrett Atkins is definitely NOT the answer) and until they fill that need, they will continue to be spectators in the East.

Matt Wieters

On the mound, things get a lot worse. The Orioles pitching is just terrible. They’ve added a 35 year old Kevin Millwood, who was barely an ace in this prime, to be their ace. He fronts a rotation with two pitchers who had ERAs over 5.00 last season, and the Orioles are going to lose a lot of games this season in the first 4-5 innings because the starter just can’t get it done. In the bullpen, Mike Gonzalez can cover last season’s trade of George Sherrill to the Dodgers, but the rest of the pen is hardly up to the task besetting them, given the very shaky starting staff. Until the Orioles can find the next Matt Wieters or Nolan Reimold of their pitching staff, they will not be able to keep pace. For a team who plays in Camden Yards, the first retro-style baseball cathedral and still the standard by which new ballparks are judged today, they and their fans deserve to see a return to greatness.

Camden Yards is a lot prettier than the

Orioles pitching

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

SEASON OUTLOOK: Starting over

Toronto left little question about their rebuilding status this offseason when they traded Roy Halladay. Gone as well are veteran players like Scott Rolen, Marco Scutaro and Rod Barajas. Instead, the Blue Jays have turned over leadership of the team to their two outstanding young players, 2B Aaron Hill and LF Adam Lind. Both of them are terrific, but the Jays’ job is not nearly finished, and there are too many unproductive under-productive players still on the roster like 1B Lyle Overbay and DH Randy Ruiz. The Jays have been desperately trying to move CF Vernon Wells and his contract from hell, but it looks like they are stuck with it.

Aaron Hill

There are some bright spots as well in the pitching staff. Shaun Marcum, whose 2008 campaign was cut short by Tommy John surgery and who didn’t pitch at all last year, has looked very good in spring training and the Jays are hoping he can emerge as the new ace of the staff. Ricky Romero is another good young starter they’re counting on, but the best of all may be a player not yet on the big league roster: Kyle Drabeck was the centerpiece of their trade with Philadelphia and the Jays would surely love to see him break through and make everyone forget Roy Halladay.