| 28 July 2011
Jaguar fans have feared this throughout the entire lockout-Will the lockout affect ticket sale progress we fought so hard in 2010 to sell? The answer is undoubtably, yes.
Originally this article was written in 2009, the single worst attendance for the Jaguars on record. It was a way to explain the many factors that do affect the overall sales pitch of the Jags to the public. But a recent Pro Football Talk article explaining our assumed future struggles had me revisit to see if these stats should still apply.
And they most certainly still do apply.
Even though the Jaguars did not black out a single game in 2010 (while many other teams did), we have and will always be the but of the BO Jokes. Our name will always be tossed in the LA hat but the truth of the matter is the majority of the country has no idea of what a passionate fan base we truely have.
Allow me to explain...
In 1995 the long awaited inaugural season started for the Jacksonville Jaguars. This moment in time was something the Florida city and state leaders had been pushing towards for years.
Since 1995, the Jaguars have the best franchise start than any other NFL franchise. So why has the national media all but given up hope on this team and essentially dubbed the Jaguars to already be packing for LA?
The reason? Perception....
I was once told that there are 2 sides to every aspect of your life that both requires management; Perception and Reality.
And the Jags are in still in that perfect storm of bad perception...
Similar markets based on population continue to sell out
What the national media fails to tell you is that since 2004, Jacksonville has averaged a ranking of 21 out of 32 NFL teams as far as attendance (Highest 16th in 2004 to lowest in 2009 at 30th- last year 24th). AHEAD OF teams likes Pittsburgh, Dallas, Chicago and Tampa Bay. Everbank Field is one of the largest in the NFL at 67k seats, as it was built to also accommodate the annual Florida-Georgia game and the Gator Bowl, but Jacksonville is the 2nd smallest market in the league with a little over 800k residents. The smallest market is the NFL is Green Bay.
Jacksonville's attendance is also affected by the economy which reflects in our area games being blacked out. With an unemployment rate of 10% in our city alone, the fans are forced to make difficult choices as to what is really important in life; putting a roof over your head or buying season tickets.
Think about these facts:
Everbank Holds: 67,000 (same as NFL stadium averages across the country-original capacity is 76k making the stadium one of the largest in the league)
Club/Luxury Suites: 11,000
Average Family Income: $55,000
Cost of Living in Jacksonville: $50,000
Fan Index for Family of 4 to Attend Jag Game(pdf): $310 per game
Based on this data, an area Jacksonville family has about $5k to spend on extras such as sporting events, vacations, emergencies and other life necessities. If a family were to purchase season tickets for the Jaguars that would be an additional cost of $3k a year leaving a family of 4 only $2k for other life necessities. These are the same fans that are expected to purchase 55k seats for every game.
No wonder we have blackouts.
TV blackouts hurt the league; without the TV exposure, it becomes more difficult for those teams with low attendance and few sellouts to increase their popularity and following as the league loses TV exposure.
In reply to the Jags current situation, one Green Bay fan was quoted as saying " And yet, the Green Bay Packers (metro population, about 220K) are sold out generations in advance and are a *donor* team under the NFL's current revenue sharing formula. Up here in northeastern Wisconsin, we can do little but scratch our heads at these other markets that aren't making it."
That is very easy to reply to, Green Bay has had generations to build a fan base and again they have ONE TEAM for the entire Wisconsin NFL market. Jacksonville needs to be given a chance to build a fan base with at least one generation.
Bad Perception #2: Comparisons to Carolina
A fan of the Panthers was quoted as saying " I live in Charlotte and our team seems to be doing great in terms of fan support/attendance". Yes it is true that Jacksonville/Carolina both came into the NFL during the same year but the Carolina Panther market stretches across two states. Florida alone has 3 NFL teams, however with Jacksonville being close to Georgia, we are forced to compete with those markets as well.
Miami is just as far from Jax as Atlanta and if you consider Miami taking up some of our market fan base then you must include other pro teams within the same 6 hour drive distance.
The Jaguars fail under pressure?
This might be true. But....
Over the years the Jaguars have earned the reputation of showing up and surprising people across the country for beating teams on a large stage, but they also have the reputation of losing to teams they have no business losing to. Besides the hardcore 40k fans that show up to every game, its the casual fans that are finicky.
A Gainsville, FL native was quoted as saying " Its funny how Gainesville doesn't seem to have problems filling their seats. This isn't Jacksonville's problem, but an issue of selling the NFL product. Blackouts, lack of tradition, and comparatively boring games leave Floridians preferring their Gators, Noles, and Canes".
He continues on: "Why would I watch the NFL when I have the SEC?".
You can't blame the college fan here, or general fan to begin with. Out of 9 pro markets in Florida (not counting the Big 3 of colleges), all of the teams have had difficulty with attendance when they did not win.
It could be a multitude of problems similar to Jacksonville's, or perhaps its that Floridians are just too damn spoiled.
Winning consistently matters in Florida.
The Jags went to the playoffs four times out of their first 5 years, made a short appearance in the playoffs in 2005 and beat the Pittsburgh Steelers at home in the snow in 2007. Prior to the start of the 2008 season, the Jags were picked by many sports writers across the country as Super Bowl bound. The Jags again failed to meet expectations, frustrating fans and creating another bad perception that the Jags were "07' one hit wonders".
After a couple years of admitting rebuilding the entire team (its still one of the youngest in the leagues), the 2010 season was one of the most electrifying seasons to ever be a part of. From comeback wins vs. the Browns and Raiders, a dominating win against Tebow's Broncos (someone we famously caught a lot of grief from Gator Nation for not drafting) and then we had the Mike Thomas Hail Mary Catch and Scobee's incredible 59 yarder to beat the Colts.
Too bad we couldn't close out the season when we had the chance later on in the year vs the arch rival Colts.
Football, as with all major sports, is a game of inches. And the Jaguars always seem just a couple plays away from winning.
The Jag fans don't care about their team and its just a matter of time before they move the team to LA?
This argument angers me the most. Jacksonville is a very small market as previously stated thus we do not receive the same national coverage as say NY, Chicago etc..As a result, once a perception is created in the national media is it hard to change that impression. Jacksonville is filled with avid fans that have never missed a game since the city got the team in 95'.
The owner, Wayne Weaver, will never move the team as long as he is an owner and he has publicly stated numerous times he has no plans to sell.
Weaver spent years lobbing to get the team here and he will not see that dream die away easily. A major city such as LA is crying for another NFL team though the Raiders and Rams never lasted in that market.
Yes, Jacksonville has had blackouts, but it is a problem across the league.
Arizona, Detroit, Oakland, Buffalo, St. Louis, Tampa Bay and San Diego all either had blackouts last season or where dangerous close to blacking out. just like the Jaguars (except we had ZERO in 2010). Did you hear about those teams as well? Didn't think so.
Weather is also a big factor to consider. San Diego is similar to Jacksonville in that in addition to football we also have beautiful weather in which people like to do other things besides going to a football game. Jacksonville also has national parks, beaches, world class golfing, shopping and close proximity to Orlando, the tourist capital of the world.
The Jags have to win consistently or the casual fan will find other, cheaper things to do with their time.
Jacksonville is also home to a naval base bringing in many people who are not native to Jacksonville. Most of these people have teams back home that they support, leading them to believe the perception that Jacksonville should not have an NFL team.
Some writers would have you believe that it was a mistake to ever bring the team here in the first place. I wonder if these writers were to say the same thing when the Jaguars made the playoffs for 7 out of 15 seasons?
So what's a solution to help those franchises through a league imposed lockout?
The NFL needs to lift the blackout policy.
A 132 day lockout, a bad economy mixed with the challenges of other hurdles in Jacksonville make it incredibly hard to overcome. Circulating the "Jaguar Fan Myth" only hurts the perception of the Jaguar fan across the country and does not give the full picture of what is going on.
The reality is Jacksonville has avid Jaguar fans here who love our team and spend thousands of dollars a year to help support it .
If you were born when the Jag's arrived, you would be 17 years old. It takes a generation to build a solid fan base. Most of the fans at the Jags games are younger people, thus the base is growing and will continue to grow with time.
It will be up to the younger fan base dubbed Generation J who will fight for the Jags survival.
Jacksonville has a right to be given a chance to survive.
