12 July 2010
Written by: Rob Lazlo
Biggest Surprise Team: San Diego Padres
During this past off-season, the Padres were thought to be so hopeless that a list of the players who would be available at the mid-season fire sale was already being assembled. Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox, Heath Bell to the Phillies, Mike Adams to the Braves? Forget it. The Padres, led by a deep and talented pitching staff and just enough hitting, have the best road record in the National League and lead the NL West. They may not be able to sustain it, but for this year at least, the Padres are a factor for what they are doing on the field instead of at the trade table.
Biggest Disappointment Team: Seattle Mariners
With an aggressive offseason under their belts, a lot of people thought Seattle would make a run at the AL West (although I wasn’t one of them, remember)? In any case, the Mariners have become what the Padres were going to be - the team that’s out of it in July and looking to trade talent for prospects. It’s not just that the Mariners aren’t contending, it’s how dreadfully they’re not contending. As of this writing, they have the second worst record in the American League and are 6.5 games behind third place Oakland in the West. Yuck!
Hit the title/read more to check out the rest of the season's surprises and disappointments...
Biggest Surprise Player: Martin Prado (ATL) .332, 10 HR
To be fair, Martin Prado’s success is not a shocker. This is a guy who, over five years, has played his way from being a utility infielder to being a starter, but I don’t think anyone expected him to be leading the league in hitting at the halfway point. Prado’s emergence as a prime time performer has been a big key in Atlanta’s first half success.
Tough Out - Prado: Tough Luck - Lee: Tough Sell - Figgins
Biggest Disappointment Player: Derrek Lee (CHC) .233, 10 HR
There’s so many things that are disappointing about the Cubs, but surely Lee is the biggest. His OPS is down nearly .300 points. His batting average is down 75 pts. The biggest dilemma for the Cubs? They have no one else to do what Lee was supposed to. He bats third in their order, the spot reserved for the team’s best hitter - it’s best combination of contact and power. With an average under .250 and only 10 homeruns, Lee has provided neither.
Best Free Agent Signing: Vladimir Guerrero (TEX)
When the Rangers gave Vlad 5½ million dollars this offseason, it was considered a very big gamble. Guerrero played just 100 games for the Angels last season and put up his lowest OPS and homerun totals in a dozen years. Injury prone and 35 years old is not a basket where you want to put a lot of eggs, right? Wrong! Guerrero has been nothing short of fabulous this season, batting .325 with 20 HRs and a team leading 75 RBI. The only reason he’s not leading in all three categories is the MAMMOTH year being put up by the guy hitting behind him - Josh Hamilton.
Worst Free Agent Signing: Chone Figgins (SEA)
Seattle’s two big acquisitions this offseason were pitcher Cliff Lee by trade and signing Chone Figgins to a four year $36 million deal. Lee has worked out great: so good, in fact, that he just got traded to Texas. There is no similar interest in anyone acquiring Figgins, who is in the process of putting up the lowest batting average of his career (at .234, it is nearly 50 points below his career average) and a slugging percentage that’s an unheard of under-.300 (.277). To be fair, Figgins is trying to make the most of what he is doing, leading the team in runs scored and stolen bases, but his contributions are far below what expectations, and his salary, would justify.
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera (DET) .346, 22 HRs, 76 RBI
The MVP race in the American League between Miguel Cabrera and Josh Hamilton (.345, 22 HRs, 64 RBI) is, in fact, a triple crown race. Only unlikely Jose Bautista of Toronto has more homers, with 24. Hamilton trails Cabrera by one batting average point and, thanks to the prolific RBI talents of Vlad Guerrero, a handful of RBI. It’s so close, it’s hard to pick a winner, but Cabrera has a small statistical edge so he gets the nod.
NL MVP: Joey Votto (CIN) .314, 22 HRs, 60 RBI
While Vottos’ numbers are ahead of the competition at the halfway point, there are a number of players have really good seasons in the NL, including Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, Adrian Gonzalez, Andre Ethier and in particular the Mets‘ David Wright. Votto tops them all right now, however, and given the Reds push to the top of the NL Central, at the halfway point he wins not only the “best stats” vote but also the “most valuable to his team” vote.
AL Cy Young: Jon Lester (BOS) 11-3, 2.78 ERA, 124 Ks
Really? Jon Lester? Really. Unlike the National League, the AL has not seen anyone just blowing away the competition, and Lester, in part because of Boston’s poor start, has snuck under the radar, but consider: Lester is third in the AL in strikeouts, second in wins, in the top 10 in WHIP and ERA. To be sure, there are a number of ways you could go here - Tampa’s David Price is the obvious one: he leads the league in wins at 12-4 and has an ERA of 2.42, but he has less strikeouts and a good but not great WHIP of 1.20. Cliff Lee has a WHIP under 1, but is only 8-4. Don’t count out iron man Andy Petite of the Yankees either. He’s 11-2 with an ERA of 2.70.
NL Cy Young Ubaldo Jimenez (COL) 15-1, 2.20 ERA, 113 Ks
This is an easy call at the halfway point - Jimenez’ ungodly start continues to boost his numbers above everyone else, but he’s cooled recently, so keep an eye on guys like Florida’s Josh Johnson, who is 9-3 with a league leading ERA under 2 (1.70), San Diego’s Mat Latos, the Cardinals’ Adam Wainwright and the Phillies’ Roy Halladay. All of these guys have the talent to make a run at Jimenez, but Johnson’s ERA and WHIP numbers are unfathomably good right now (sort of what Jimenez’ numbers were like through the first two months of the season) and even though his win total is behind the others, he could be the one to beat down the stretch.
