| 03 January 2012
You’re in good hands with Allstate… not so much with Michigan receivers as the Wolverines are 90th in the country in passing offense.
The Sugar Bowl is arguably the most controversial bowl this season and is certainly received the most backlash out of all the major bowl games. The Sugar Bowl bypassed higher-ranked Kansas State and Boise State to select Michigan and Virginia Tech. Neither team won its conference; only the Hokies reached a conference championship game. The selection of Michigan made some sense, as long as you realize that the non-championship bowl games are out to make money: Michigan is one of the most storied programs in football and has a large, rabid fanbase that is itching to go to a major bowl for the first time in a few years. Virginia Tech was selected based on its relationship with the Sugar Bowl and its reputation for fans that travel well.
Naturally, the Hokies struggled to sell their allotment of tickets, and school officials were encouraging fans that couldn’t attend to buy tickets for others.
Speaking of Virginia Tech, the Hokies had their typical season: started the year ranked around the top ten and picked by many to compete for an ACC championship and BCS bowl bid. Good enough to compete in a weaker conference and earn a BCS berth but not a national title contender. A loss to Clemson stung, but the Hokies rattled off seven straight wins to climb to #5 and make it to the ACC title game before succumbing to Clemson once again. Unlike years past, Virginia Tech played a soft schedule. The Hokies played only two ranked teams this year, Clemson and Georgia Tech, and while they beat the Yellow Jackets, Clemson easily handed the Hokies in their matchups by scores of 23-3 and 38-10.
Michigan had a bounce-back year after Rich Rodriguez’s disastrous tenure in Ann Arbor came to an end after last season. In the first year under Brady Hoke, the Wolverines rebounded from 7-6 in 2010 to 10-2 in 2011 and beat archrival Ohio State for the first time in eight years. Denard Robinson had another sensational season, but the biggest reason for the turnaround was the improvement of the defense. New coordinator Greg Mattison, previously coordinator of the vaunted Baltimore Raven defense of the NFL, took over for the departed Greg Robinson and made an immediate impact. The Wolverines were 110th in the country in total defense a year ago but improved to 18th this year, allowing only 317.6 yards a game. Like the Hokies, the Wolverines played a softer schedule and only faced two ranked teams all year. Michigan lost to in-state rival Michigan State but trounced Nebraska. Unlike Virginia Tech, the Wolverines enter with momentum having won their past three games.
Key matchup: Denard Robinson vs. the Virginia Tech defense
Michigan QB Denard Robinson (L) goes up against LB Jack Tyler and the vaunted Virginia Tech defense
Robinson is one of the most electrifying players in all of college football. Against Notre Dame, he threw for 338 yards and four touchdowns and ran for 108 yards and another touchdown. He also threw three interceptions, so he makes plays for both teams. He has 14 interceptions on the season, so there will likely be chances for Virginia Tech to pick off some passes. If Robinson can take care of the football and make some big plays, Michigan will have a good chance of winning. If the Hokies can limit Robinson on the ground, force him to beat them just with his arm, and force some turnovers, the odds will be in their favor.
Why you should watch: Robinson alone is reason enough to watch. The junior is a human highlight reel and a phenomenal runner. He led Michigan to a come-from-behind win over Notre Dame with two seconds to go in Week 2 that was one of the most exciting games of the season. Robinson also threw 14 interceptions, so there will be opportunities for Virginia Tech to make some plays on defense and force some turnovers. The Hokies have some offensive talent of their own. Running back David Wilson was the ACC player of the year and ran for 1,163 yards with 16 touchdowns. His 125.2-yard average was sixth in the country. Quarterback Logan Thomas is an imposing physical specimen with a cannon for an arm and is the latest in a long line of athletic, dual-threat Hokie quarterbacks. He threw for almost 2,800 yards with 19 touchdowns.
Why you shouldn’t watch: It’s not Boise State or Kansas State, two teams with higher rankings and more deserving resumes. People criticize Boise’s schedule, but Virginia Tech’s and Michigan’s non-conference schedules were laughable: FCS Appalachian State, East Carolina, Arkansas State, Marshall, Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan, San Diego State, and Notre Dame. When these teams played elite competition, they were beaten soundly. Michigan gave up 34 points to a punchless Ohio State offense that can’t throw the ball, so how will they fare against Thomas and Wilson? On the other side, Clemson ran for over 200 yards against the Hokies, so Robinson and running back Fitzgerald Toussaint could have a field day running behind an experienced offensive line. The Wolverines’ zone-read attack could give the Hokies fits. Finally, if both defenses live up to their numbers, it could turn out to be a low-scoring affair.
Prediction: The last time Virginia Tech faced a dynamic offense with several playmakers, it lost by four touchdowns to Clemson, and Wilson was held to a miniscule 32 yards. Robinson can take over a game by himself (see: Notre Dame), and Michigan’s defense is better than Clemson’s. Plus, Virginia Tech kicker Cody Journell was suspended after being charged with breaking & entering. For a team that likes to win with defense, not having a seasoned kicker is huge. The Wolverines win.
