| 05 January 2012
Arguably the most prestigious of the non-BCS bowl games, the Cotton Bowl also offers one of this year’s most intriguing matchups: #8 Kansas State against #6 Arkansas in a matchup of 10-2 teams whose only losses came to national title contenders.
Kansas State was the surprise team of 2011, coming out of nowhere to breach the top ten and further cementing Bill Snyder’s reputation as one of the top coaches in history. Coming off a 7-6 finish a year ago, the Wildcats were picked to finish eighth in the Big 12 this season. Instead, Kansas State started the year 7-0 before losing to the state of Oklahoma in back-to-back weeks. Snyder’s team lost handily to Oklahoma but gave Oklahoma State all it could handle in a 52-45 defeat. The Wildcats are led by do-everything quarterback Collin Klein. His passing numbers are nothing special (1,745 yards with 12 touchdowns and 5 interceptions), but he ran for 1,099 yards and a school-record 26 touchdowns. Only Wisconsin running back Montee Ball scored more rushing touchdowns this year than Klein.
Arkansas seemed to sneak under the radar, which is surprising since they play in the SEC. Everyone’s attention was focused on Alabama-LSU, the temperature of Mark Richt’s seat, and how awful Florida was. Meanwhile, the Razorbacks, despite losing stud quarterback Ryan Mallet to the NFL, went 10-2 with their only losses coming to Alabama and LSU. Coach Bobby Petrino is known for his offense, and this Arkansas team does not disappoint in that regard. Quarterback Tyler Wilson led the SEC in passing yards with 3,422 and threw 22 touchdowns to only six interceptions. He’ll look often towards receiver Jarius Wright, the SEC’s leader in receiving touchdowns with 11. Wright is also second in the conference with 63 catches for 1,029 yards.
Key matchup: Kansas State QB Collin Klein vs. Arkansas’ defense
KSU QB Collin Klein (7) scoring a touchdown. Only one player did that more than Klein this year.
As Klein goes, so go the Wildcats. One of the toughest players in the country, the gritty Klein finished second in the nation in rushing touchdowns, a feat that’s almost unheard of for a quarterback. Unlike most dual-threat quarterbacks, he’s not a quick, shifty runner. Klein is 6’5” and 226 pounds. He’s not afraid to stick his head down, pick up the tough yards, and dish out some punishment. The most apt comparison for his style would be Tim Tebow. Klein also accounts for the vast majority of K-State’s offensive production. He'll have to bring his A-game to keep up with a potent Arkansas offense that figures to put up points against the Kansas State defense. Stop Klein, and you stop the Wildcats. That’s no easy matter, however, as Arkansas allows 174 yards a game on the ground.
Why you should watch: What part of “#6 vs. #8” did you not understand? This game features the highest-ranked matchup of any non-BCS bowl, and it’s better than the Orange and Sugar Bowls. In fact, this probably should have been the Sugar Bowl. The contrasting styles make for an interesting matchup. Arkansas features a high-powered passing offense whereas Kansas State relies upon a punishing ground game. Also, each team’s strength corresponds to the other team’s weakness, so it should be a back-and-forth, entertaining game. Arkansas excels at throwing the ball; Kansas State struggles against the pass and gave up 1,007 yards and nine touchdowns to Oklahoma’s Landry Jones and Oklahoma State’s Brandon Weeden in its two losses. Kansas State rushes for nearly 200 yards a game while Arkansas gives up almost that many. Even the quarterbacks, who are among the most underrated in the country, have differing styles: Wilson is the prototypical passer who beats you with his arm while Klein is the tough, gritty runner who can beat you with his legs and then hit you over-the-top with a play-action pass.
Why you shouldn’t watch: Kansas State was a surprise team this year whereas Arkansas was not. There was a reason why Kansas State was picked to finish eighth in the Big 12. The Wildcats just don’t have a ton of talent. They are truly a team where the sum is greater than the parts. That lack of depth was exposed by Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Arkansas has top-flight athletes and could jump all over the Wildcats. Arkansas has issues of its own, however. Its success has led to other teams poaching its coaches. Offensive coordinator Garrick McGee left to take the head coaching job at UAB. Special teams coordinator John L. Smith took the head coaching position at Weber State, and defensive coordinator Willy Robinson resigned. How will integrating new coaches at this late juncture affect the team’s effectiveness? Further, Arkansas may not be as good as its gaudy record suggests. Their only wins against ranked teams came against Texas A&M, Auburn, and South Carolina. The Gamecocks are in the top ten, but A&M finished the regular season 6-6 while Auburn was 7-5. The Razorbacks were blasted by LSU and Alabama and struggled against Ole Miss and Vanderbilt. Kansas State might run roughshod over them.
Prediction: Logic says to pick Arkansas. They have more talent than Kansas State and possess an offense capable of doing damage through the air like Oklahoma and Oklahoma State did. Unlike typical SEC powerhouses, though, the Razorbacks lack an elite defense. Kansas State can take advantage of that. The Wildcats have won several games that appeared to be mismatches on paper, and it’s usually unwise to bet against Bill Snyder. I’m going with a hunch on this one and picking the Wildcats to pull off the upset. Kansas State wins a barn-burner.
